Cascading Failure Analysis With Load Uncertainty in Cyber-Physical Power Systems

Abstract

This paper propose a novel model to analyze the effects of load uncertainty on the cascading failure of cyber-physical power systems. In this model, we take into account the interdependence of network nodes, cascade overload and voltage violation in the cascading process. Moreover, the AC power flow model is incorporated with the unscented transformation (UT) method to simulate the power flow distribution under the influence of load uncertainty. Based on the actual load data, the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) technique is adopted to model the load uncertainty. The results show that the load uncertainty aggravates the cascading failure propagation of coupled power systems, and the high uncertainty of heavy load nodes is more likely to cause large-scale blackouts. In addition, compared with small-world cyber network, scale-free cyber network can make the coupled system more robust and reduce the severity of blackouts.