Black Box Analytics and Ethical Decision Making

Michael J. Davern, Pujawati Mariestha (Estha) Gondowijoyo, P. Murphy
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引用次数: 2

Abstract

Using an experiment with participants having management experience, we examine sales target setting decisions using an analytics-based forecasting system in a situation involving an ethical dilemma. Specifically, participants have private information that the forecast significantly underestimates likely sales, making the suggested target easily achievable. We explore the extent to which participants act unethically by not adjusting the sales target upwards. We employ a 2x2 between-subjects design, manipulating forecasting system transparency (opaque vs transparent) and accountability both as a measured continuous variable and with the use of a prompt either before (pre-prompt) or after (post-prompt) the adjustment decision. We find that participants make less ethical decisions when the system is opaque and more ethical decisions when they feel greater accountability. The effect of accountability is greatest when the system is opaque. We also examine reasons provided for less ethical decisions and find that the least ethical participants use more rationalizations than those whose decisions are not as unethical. Our results suggest that organizations should endeavor to make data analytics systems transparent to decision making users. However, when they cannot, they should ensure that decision makers feel accountable for their decisions; for example, with a prompt or decision aid.
黑箱分析和道德决策
通过对具有管理经验的参与者进行实验,我们在涉及道德困境的情况下使用基于分析的预测系统来检查销售目标设定决策。具体来说,参与者有私人信息,预测大大低估了可能的销售额,使建议的目标很容易实现。我们探讨了参与者不向上调整销售目标的不道德行为的程度。我们采用2x2受试者之间的设计,操纵预测系统透明度(不透明vs透明)和问责制作为可测量的连续变量,并在调整决策之前(前提示)或之后(后提示)使用提示。我们发现,当系统不透明时,参与者做出的道德决策较少,而当他们感到责任更大时,他们做出的道德决策更多。当系统不透明时,问责制的效果是最大的。我们还研究了为不太道德的决策提供的原因,发现最不道德的参与者比那些决策不那么不道德的参与者使用更多的合理化。我们的研究结果表明,组织应该努力使数据分析系统对决策用户透明。然而,如果他们不能,他们应该确保决策者感到对他们的决定负责;例如,使用提示或决策辅助。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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