The emergency response management based on Bayesian decision network

Abstract

In order to solve the emergency decision management problem with uncertainty, an Emergency Bayesian decision network (EBDN) model is used in this paper. By computing the probability of each node, the EBDN can solve the uncertainty of different response measures. Using Gray system theory to determine the weight of all kinds of emergency losses. And then use genetic algorithm to search the best combination measure by comparing the value of output loss. For illustration, a typhoon example is utilized to show the feasibility of EBDN model. Empirical results show that the EBDN model can combine expert's knowledge and historic data to predict expected effects under different combinations of response measures, and then choose the best one. The proposed EBDN model can combine the decision process into a diagrammatic form, and thus the uncertainty of emergency events in solving emergency dynamic decision making is solved.