Visualization System Suite for Probabilistic Weather Forecasting

Abstract

Today, forecasts from most media sources are communicated in a deterministic manner that supplies explicit weather prediction information for timeframes and specific events. For the most part, these basic forecasts provide enough information to allow a consumer to confidently make plans. However, there are situations in which forecasts uncertainty matters, and a deterministic weather forecast does not provide enough information for a consumer to plan confidently. By reporting probabilistic information such as forecast confidence and by quantifying uncertainty, users would be able to trust the forecast and proceed with making their plans, or know to check back frequently for updates if the forecast is uncertain and likely to change. In this paper, we present a series of visualization concepts that are used to present weather uncertainty, along with corresponding in person and online user studies. The goals of our research are to use visualization to instill appropriate confidence in weather predictions, drive people’s decisions, and propel the world by helping people to find good times for outside activities while protecting health, safety, and business interests. We hope that the outcome will enable consumers to perform at their best aided by more informative weather information.Deterministic weather forecasts are easily consumed and are found everywhere from apps on mobile phones, to social media sites, radio, and television. Our research provides a roadmap for augmenting these with forecast uncertainty and probabilities. One example of communicating forecast uncertainty may occur with winter storm tracks several days prior to an event. An on-camera meteorologist might describe to their viewers that if the winter storm goes north of the region one type of winter precipitation will fall but if it takes a southerly track a different outcome is expected. As the event gets closer, the meteorologist can hone the forecast and also provide a level of confidence to the viewer. In this example a human meteorologist describes the possible weather outcomes and to plan appropriately.