COVID-19 SEIRV Model Simulation In West Sumatera Province Using Runge Kutta 4th Order

Abstract

A mathematical model can describe a problem of spreading of a disease outbreak and can further predict the number of cases for the future. As we have faced COVID-19 outbreak since Desember 2019, the mathematics formula can be used by the authorities to prevent and as well as prepare the spreading of the disease. This paper uses the SEIRV method to simulate the data of COVID-19 in West Sumatera Province. Runge-Kutta 4th Order numeric method was used to simulate the model due to its higher accuracy compared to other numeric methods. The simulation also compares the cases between tha vaccines that available in West Sumatera Province. In conclusion, the simulation has shown that the number of COVID-19 patients has sharply decreased compared to without having the vaccination. Furthermore, moderna and pfizer which are having high efficacy, has been proved in the simulation can sharply decrease COVID-19 cases number compared to sinovac