Regional Climate Model Simulations of the 1998 Summer China Flood: Dependence on Initial and Lateral Boundary Conditions

The Open Atmospheric Science Journal Pub Date : 2011-10-25 DOI:10.2174/1874282301105010096

Shuyan Liu, Xin‐Zhong Liang, Wei Gao, Yuxiang He, Tiejun Ling

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引用次数: 5

Abstract

The dependence of the RegCM3 (Regional Climate Model version 3) downscaling skill on initial conditions (ICs) and lateral boundary conditions (LBCs) are investigated for the 1998 summer flood along the Yangtze River Basin in China. The effect of IC uncertainties is depicted by 15 realizations starting on each consecutive day from April 1 to 15 while all ending on September 1, 1998 with identical driving LBCs, analyses are based on June, July and August simulations. The result reveals certain IC effect on precipitation for daily evolution but little for summer mean geographical distribution. In contrast, the effect of LBCs uncertainties as represented by four different reanalyses are notably larger in both daily evolution and summer mean distribution. The ensemble average among either 15 IC realizations or 4 LBC runs does not show important skill improvement over the individuals. None of the RegCM3 simulations (including the ensemble means) captured the observed main rain band along the Yangtze River Basin. This general failure suggests the need for further model physics improvement.

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1998年中国夏季洪水的区域气候模式模拟:对初始和侧向边界条件的依赖

研究了1998年长江流域夏季洪水的初始条件(ICs)和侧向边界条件(lbc)对RegCM3降尺度技巧的依赖性。IC不确定性的影响由15个实现来描述，从4月1日到15日的每一个连续的日子开始，而所有的实现都结束于1998年9月1日，具有相同的驱动lbc，分析是基于6月，7月和8月的模拟。结果表明，IC对降水的日变化有一定的影响，但对夏季平均地理分布影响不大。相比之下，四种不同的再分析所代表的lbc不确定性的影响在日演化和夏季平均分布中都明显更大。在15个IC实现或4个LBC运行中，总体平均没有显示出对个体的重要技能提高。RegCM3模拟(包括集合均值)均未捕获观测到的长江流域主要雨带。这种普遍的失败表明需要进一步改进模型的物理特性。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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The Open Atmospheric Science Journal

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