Local Landscape Position Impacts Demographic Rates in a Widespread North American Steppe Bunchgrass

Abstract

[this article now published at Ecosphere: https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.3351] Understanding the environmental drivers of demographic rates and population dynamics over space and time is critical for anticipating how species will respond to climate change. While the influence of temporal environmental variation and large environmental gradients are well recognized, less is known about how local topography and landscape position influence demography over small spatial scales. Here, we investigate how local landscape position (north- vs. south-facing aspects) influence the demographic rates and population growth of a common bunchgrass in western North America, bluebunch wheatgrass (Pseudoroegneria spicata), using 6 annual censuses measuring growth, survival, and reproductive output. We found notably lower survival on south facing slopes, particularly among smaller individuals. In contrast, south-facing slopes maintained comparatively high reproductive output in most years, measured both as spikes per plant and spikelets per spike. When we combined these data in demographic models, we found that lower survival among small individuals and greater reliance on reproduction mean south-facing slopes would generally have to maintain higher recruitment for a stable population. Our results highlight the important influence that landscape position and local topography can have in driving population trends. As conditions warm and dry with climate change (north-faces becoming similar to current south-facing slope conditions), bluebunch wheatgrass may become more reliant on reproduction to maintain viable populations and more sensitive to variability in recruitment.