MODELING OF INTEGRATION PROCESSES IN THE FINANCIAL MARKETS ON THE FEATURES OF THEIR SIMILARITY

Abstract

In the article, the author considers the problems of financial integration from the point of view of the possibilities of convergence of the financial systems of various states without prejudice to the national financial and economic system. The relevance of this approach is due to the fact that at present Russia is experiencing problems in the field of financial interaction with Western countries, and therefore the issues of financial integration with countries that are not involved in sanctions pressure are a priority in terms of the formation of a national financial and credit policy. In this regard, the purpose of this article is to model the readiness for financial integration of the financial sectors of various countries on the basis of their similarity. This goal is determined by the fact that it is the similarity of the financial sectors of the economy that creates the conditions for painless financial integration between countries. The study selected the time interval from 2002 to 2021, as the object of the study selected countries that have not currently accepted the position of Western countries, have abandoned sanctions pressure on Russia. To achieve this goal, the work used the method of correlation-regression analysis, the method of clustering. The analysis used statistical data on the change in the financial aggregate M2 (money supply in the national definition) in connection with such indicators as the growth of foreign exchange reserves in dollars and the growth of real GDP, most of which demonstrate a correlation. These two variables characterize the extent to which the dynamics of the resources of the financial sector is determined by external factors that characterize the financial sector (exports, imports and foreign investment that affect the dynamics of foreign exchange reserves), as well as internal factors (GDP growth). The result of this article was the definition of a list of countries that are currently ready for financial integration with Russia. The results obtained are the basis for the formation of the financial and credit policy of Russia in the field of financial integration with other states.