How South Korea’s Economy Gained Momentum because of Covid-19

Abstract

The objective of the paper is to assess the resilience of the economy of South Korea following the Covid-19 pandemic that hit the global economy. Quarterly growth rates (annualized) of the Real GDP of South Korea and Japan are forecasted between Q2 2022 and Q4 2050. Two sets of forecasts are generated: forecasts using historical data including the pandemic (from Q1 1998 to Q1 2022) and excluding the pandemic (from Q1 1998 to Q3 2019). The computation of the difference of their averages is an indicator of the resilience of the economies during the pandemic. Used as a benchmark, Japan’s economy shows a lower resilience to the Covid-19 pandemic (+0.17%) than South Korea’s economy (+0.43%) based on Q2 2022-2050 forecasts. Driven by stronger growth than Japan, South Korea's GDP is expected to exceed Japan's by 2060.