LONG RUN RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN OIL PRICE SHOCKS, EXCHANGE RATE VOLATILITY AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NIGERIA

Abstract

The paper examined the long run relationship between oil price shock, exchange rate volatility and economic growth in Nigeria over the period 1980-2019. The study employed the Johansen Vector Autoregression (VAR)-based cointegration technique model to examine the sensitivity of real economic growth to changes in oil prices and real exchange rate volatility in the long-run while the short run dynamics was checked using a vector error correction model. The result from the Granger causality test suggests that there is causality between oil price, exchange rate and GDP. The results from Johansen cointegration test indicate there exist a long-run equilibrium relationship among the variables. Findings further show that oil price shock and appreciation in the level of exchange rate exert positive impact on real economic growth in Nigeria. The paper therefore recommends greater diversification of the economy through investment in key productive sectors of the economy using income from the crude oil export to guard against the vicissitude of oil price shock and exchange rate volatility.