Time-variant seismic reliability analysis of slopes with combined uncertainties based on probability density evolution method

Abstract

Time-variant reliability are gaining much more popularity in geotechnical engineering due to the fact that the internal geotechnical parameters are change with the time and the external environmental excitation are random processes, which is of great significance in the service-life assessment, resilience-based assessment and intelligent disaster reduction. Considering that most existing studies of time-variant reliability analysis of slopes concentrated on the static conditions, which have neglected the time-varying behaviour of intensity and frequency of input seismic loading, the present study proposed an efficient probabilistic method for the time-variant reliability analysis of slope under the seismic loading, in which the combined uncertainties of spatially variable soil properties and the randomness of seismic loading are simultaneously considered. The time-dependent behaviour of seismic performance of slope under the no-stationary stochastic processes of seismic loading is revealed. The time-variant seismic reliability results and the probability density function of dynamic failure time are calculated by the proposed method. The results from the various intensities of input seismic loading, seismic performance criteria, seismic performance indexes and uncertainties are also compared in our study to illustrate the effect of different factors on the time-variant seismic reliability of slopes.