Association between upper level diffluence in the Tropical Easterly Jet and the formation of the strongest Atlantic hurricanes in recent years

Abstract

In this paper we report the evidence of the potential role of diffluence in the 200hPa wind field off the coast of West Africa in the formation of a significant number of Category 4 and Category 5 hurricanes in the recent decade. It is shown that more than 80% cases of hurricanes at Category 4 and above is preceded by upper level diffluence in the Tropical Easterly Jet (TEJ) by 0–5 days. This TEJ is the outflow from the southern flank of the Tibetan anticyclone from the Asian monsoon region.