Evolving Labor Market Transition Probabilities and Their Impact on Worklife Estimates

Abstract

A panel of age-specific transition probabilities is developed for the three-decade period 1980 to 2010. Analysis shows that both male and female transition probabilities have evolved over the 30-year span. The transition probabilities are used to calculate both period and cohort worklives. The results differ starkly for men and women. For men, worklives are most affected for those with little education. For women, obtaining a college degree has the most impact on worklives. The results suggest that using historical period worklives may have mis-estimated worklives for these two groups relative to cohort estimates.