Simulation Study on Effect of Lockdown and Recovery Time on Spread of COVID-19 in High and Low-Density Areas

Abstract

We have carried out a Monte-Carlo simulation study of diffusion of healthy and infected disks for low and high density to understand the spread of COVID-19. Each disk has a fixed size and consists of an infecting region and is allowed to move in any random direction. When a healthy disk enters into the infecting region of the other disk, it also turns to an infected one mimicking the spread of COVID-19. Once infected it become again healthy after a fixed recovery time, τ. We show that when the density disk is low, for the low value of τ, the infected cases can be brought down to zero even without lockdown. When the lockdown is not applied, for higher values of τ, the infected cases reaches a saturation value, Ns which shows a power-law behavior, Ns ~ τβ, where β = 0.58. When the density of the system is high, the number of infected cases goes to zero only for a complete lockdown and the saturation value of infected case Ns is found independent of recovery time.