Applications of a Parsimonious Model of Development Programs’ Costs and Schedules

Abstract

A model of the cost and schedule of a development program, characterized by three non-dimensional parameters, gives means for estimating the cost and schedule impacts of constraining funding below planned levels, as well as for assessing the realism of the costs and schedules of planned programs. In contrast to models of the Norden-Rayleigh-Weibull class, the model explicitly considers specific components of cost, and captures the distinction between a development program’s value (i.e., the things delivered) and its cost (i.e., the money paid to acquire the value). Treating staff levels, staff productivity and cost, overhead, purchased material costs, and the burdens imposed by staff coordination and by allocating a program’s effort to individual workers or teams and collating the results, the model reflects effects of management actions to make programs optimal by such criteria as minimal cost, minimal time, or minimal cost subject to a maximum-time constraint.