Triggering Backlash

Abstract

This chapter captures the backlash—increased protests and lower legitimacy—triggered by prioritizing Dibao for targeted populations. The survey of 100 neighborhoods shows that when targeted populations receive Dibao benefits, there is greater contention over Dibao distribution in the neighborhood. Those who are turned away from benefits are more likely to protest and bargain for Dibao. Using large-scale social media data and deep learning to extract unique, off-line collective action events, this chapter shows that welfare-related protests are higher among cities that have a higher level of Dibao provision to targeted populations than cities that have lower levels. Although local administrators are adept at defusing protests, and collective action remains small and localized, people are left resentful and embittered. Data from a nationally representative survey shows that cities with a higher level of Dibao provision to targeted populations have lower assessment of government capabilities, especially in welfare provision and public responsiveness, as well as lower levels of political trust and satisfaction.