The Predictions of Beijing Urban Distribution Amount Using Grey Model and Industrial Structure Analysis

Abstract

In order to predict the Beijing urban distribution amount, a grey theory model is used in this paper. Based on the former study and the current situation of Beijing urban distribution system, the paper used gray theory model GM (1, 1) and qualitative analysis to predict the amount by using the samples of goods classification. Empirical results show that the freight of primary industry of Beijing remains generally stable, but some products increase. The freight of second industry go up and down. the freight of tertiary industry also increases. The gray prediction model can simulate and predict the scale and development trend of Beijing road freight, but it is needed to consider the new development trend.