Application of SEIR Model to Predict Covid-19’s Early Stage in Hubei Province

Abstract

Novel Coronavirus epidemic has been rapidly spreading since January 2020 with an increase in confirmed cases in all regions. The epidemic has drawn great attention from local governments. The first cases of COVID-19 were found in Wuhan, Hubei province in China which may have relatively typical data trend in the spread of the epidemic. In this paper, the author uses the SEIR (Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovery) model of transmission dynamics to simulate the real epidemic development in Hubei province. The purpose of this article is to present recent research advances and estimation methods for several important epidemiological parameters of COVID-19 and the prediction based on SEIR model.