Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth in Nigeria: An ARDL, Bound Test and ECM Approach

Abstract

The aim of this study is to examine the relationship between fiscal policy and economic growth in which past studies have not fully explored in Nigeria. Data was collected from the Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin from 1990 to 2017 and the study employed the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model and Error Correction Model (ECM) to address its objective. Consequently, the major findings that originated from the work could be submitted as follows. The result of ECM term confirmed that about 39% of the total disequilibrium in the previous year would be corrected in the current year. Therefore, it will take about two (2) years for the system to adjust back to its long run equilibrium path. Meanwhile, the estimated result shows that economic growth and government revenue have a significant positive relationship in Nigeria in the short run but the relationship becomes negative in the long run. However, recurrent expenditure has a significant negative relationship with economic growth in the short run but the relationship becomes insignificant in the long run. However, inflation rate has a significant positive relationship with economic growth in both short run and long run. Due to the findings that originated in this study, this paper makes the following recommendations for the policy makers in Nigeria that if the economic growth is the target of the policy makers, manipulating fiscal policy variables such as government revenue, capital expenditure and inflation rate appropriately will increase economic growth in the short run and the long run.