THE IMPACT OF COVID-19 ON NATURAL GAS MARKETS IN 2020

Abstract

"A warm start to the year 2020 coupled with the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic had a devastating impact on the Oil and Gas sector across the globe. A great economic shock was felt throughout this period and continued until the end of the year and even during the next year, but the extent of the damage is still uncertain, as is the speed and scale of recovery. Owing to the global lockdowns that resulted from the COVID-19 pandemic, gas consumption and production plummeted and the prices reached a new record low. As the pandemic started to spread in Europe the gas production went below the 2015-2019 range reflecting the decreasing trend of gas production in EU. In the same period 5 years ago the gas production was 36.6 bcm, more than twice as in Q1 2020, illustrating the rapid decrease in gas production in the block of 27 and the increase in import dependenc in natural gas. This study highlights the effects of COVID-19 on the gas markets based on publications of National Regulatory Authorities, Transmission System Operators, International Energy Agency, one of the world’s most trusted providers of data of global commodities markets and European Energy Exchange. Under the optimistic infection scenario, gas demand will recover close to the non-pandemic level by 2021. Unfortunately, the oversupply situation is improbable to be overcome promptly and in a more pessimistic way there is no visibility for a better business environment before 2023. "