Tripartite Sequential classification Sampling Plans tomonitor Tetranychus urticae Pest mite Population through time

S. Ouassat
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Abstract

The objective of this study was to develop and evaluate a tripartite sequential classification sampling plans to monitor pest mite Tetranychus urticae (Koch, 1836) through time.Three tripartite plans using Wald's Sequential Probability Ratio Test based on tally 0 and 5 binomial counts were developedfor use at different times. For each Wald’s plan, three hypotheses were tested and three probabilities (Pdeci; i=1; 2; 3) for making decision were simulated.Tripartite sequential classification sampling plans with tally 0 binomial counts was compared to dichotomous plans repeated every Δt and after 2Δt.Performance of monitoring protocols were studied by monitoring height T. urticae populations with logistic growth. The results showed that tripartite classification reduced from 30 to 40% of the expected bouts than dichotomous sampling plans after Δt and 2Δt days and reduce sampling cots. Monitoring protocol B reduced the probability of intervening and produced more sample bouts and more samples, which resulted in lower expected and 95th percentiles for density at intervention and expected loss compared to protocol A.The use of tripartite classification plan requiredadjustment of the cd2 and cd1 values to accomplish an efficient integrated pest management during growth season. Keywords— Sampling, Tetranychus urticae, monitoring protocol, Binomial count, tripartite plan, intervention
三部序次抽样法监测叶螨种群的时间变化
本研究的目的是制定和评估三方顺序分类抽样计划,以监测荨麻疹叶螨(Koch, 1836)的时间。采用基于计数0和5二项计数的Wald序列概率比检验,开发了三种三方计划,供不同时间使用。对于每个Wald的计划,测试了三个假设和三个概率(Pdeci;i = 1;2;3)进行决策模拟。将二项计数为0的三方顺序分类抽样计划与每Δt和2Δt之后重复的二分类抽样计划进行比较。通过对具有logistic增长的荨麻疹种群高度的监测,研究了监测方案的效果。结果表明,在Δt和2Δt天后,三分类比二分类减少了30% ~ 40%的预期回合数,并减少了采样周期。监测方案B降低了干预的可能性,产生了更多的样本回合和更多的样本,与方案a相比,这导致干预时的预期密度和预期损失的第95百分位数更低。使用三方分类计划需要调整cd2和cd1值,以实现生长季节有效的害虫综合治理。关键词:采样,荨麻疹叶螨,监测方案,二项计数,三方计划,干预
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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