Risk Prediction and Optimization of Electricity Retail Market Based on Risk Factors of Electricity Retail Companies

Abstract

With deregulation of electrical market in the China, the electricity retail companies (ERCs) and the electricity retail market (ERM) experiences fast development in the recent years. Different from the generation and transmission market, the retail market is more open to the participators, and has more competition and higher risk. Considering the risk factors e.g. the business scale, the capital, the employee, and the complaints, an optimization model to reduce the risk of the ERCs and ERM with higher predicted risk is newly proposed in this paper, where the risk factors are normalized by the threshold value and the time before quantifying the risk. The risk optimization problem with constraints to adjustable risk factors is nonlinear and solved by the interior point method. The numerical results validate the optimization effect on the risk of the ERCs and the ERM.