Assessment for the COVID-19 outbreak situation and importation risk of the 14 land-bordering countries of China

Abstract

ObjectiveTo analyze the COVID-19 epidemics in 14 land-bordering countries of China, evaluate the risk of imported cases to China, and provide evidence for the further prevention of imported COVID-19. MethodsThe public information about COVID-19 epidemics in these countries were collected from their government websites, mainstream media, relevant professional portals and officially published literature, and the SEIR mathematic modeling of infectious diseases and the COVID-19 Government Response Stringency Index published by the University of Oxford were used for an analysis on the incidences of COVID-19 and tests of 2019-nCoV, the numbers of overseas Chinese, the population and health resources, and control measures in these countries. ResultsGenerally, the testing coverage rates of 2019-nCoV in these land-bordering countries are low, and there might be a large number of undiagnosed and unreported cases. At present, Russia has the highest case number, with a relatively low COVID-19 Government Response Stringency Index, as well as a high proportion of elderly population, so there might be a great potential demand for intensive care in the future. India and Pakistan, which have a large population and fewer healthcare workers, are second only to Russia in the number of cases, and might face a shortage of medical resources in the future. ConclusionThe risk of imported COVID-19 to China from the 14 bordering countries is considered to be high. Therefore, continuous attention is needed for all the land port cities. It is suggested that the capacities of port cities to deal with the imported COVID-19 cases should be evaluated in time, and the preparedness plan for the port city response to imported COVID-19 cases should be formulated as soon as possible. Meanwhile, the mechanism of entry health screening and patient transferring should be established and strengthened.