Forecasting oil production for Oligocene C sequence, X field, Cuu Long basin using logistic growth model

Abstract

Hydrocarbon production forecasting for the field lifetime in the short and long term is an important phase, the accuracy of this process plays a tremendous role in giving the decision of reasonable field management and development. In this article, the logistic growth models using the function MATLAB’s ‘nlinfit’ have been built to forecast oil production yield for the Oligocene C sequence, X field, Cuu Long basin. Thanks to the combination with the history matching process, the logistic growth model expressed high accuracy, the results of the model are very close to the actual production data with a relative error of 1,85%. The article analyzed and evaluated the production parameters of wells obtained when building logistic growth models such as the time at which half of the carrying capacity has been produced, the steepness of the decline of the rate, and the production rate of the wells at the forecast time. Without applying any improved oil recovery method, the decline of the rate of all wells approaches 100 bbl/d before reaching the validity period of the oil and gas contract. This is the basis for operators to establish and improve field development plans.