How U.S. Agriculture Will Fare Under the USMCA and Retaliatory Tariffs

Abstract

A hallmark of the Trump Administration has been to reverse the post-World War II consensus on lowering of trade barriers and a commitment towards multilateral free trade, towards a more protectionist and perhaps mercantilist position vis-A -vis trade policy. One of the Administration's first actions in this regard was the decision to leave the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement, followed thereafter by raising tariffs on steel and aluminum imports. President Trump left no doubt where he stood on the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), which he often stated was the "worst trade deal maybe ever signed anywhere". The administration's actions on trade are likely to have significant implications for U.S. farmers as these actions target three of the largest markets for U.S. agricultural exports ”Canada, China and Mexico accounting" for some 44% of U.S. agricultural exports representing an average of $63 billion from 2013 to 2015.