Analyzing Cascading Effects of Spoofing Attacks on ADS-B Using a Discrete Model of Air Traffic Control Responses and AGMOD Dynamics

Abstract

Cyber attacks on civil aviation critical information infrastructure such as Automatic Surveillance Dependent-Broadcast (ADS-B) spoofing targeting ground stations could cause major detrimental impacts to the performance of Air Traffic Management (ATM) operations. To mitigate the risks of spoofing attacks, a deep understanding of the possible impacts is crucial. Therefore, we analyzed the perturbated states of the flight ‘Arrivals-Ground Movement-Departures’ (AGMOD) dynamics during an emergency using a discrete events model. We simulated attack scenarios and observed the emerged cascading effects in the form of flight delay propagation through quantification of delayed time steps and number of affected aircraft within the AGMOD phases. Besides proving how ADS-B spoofing attacks propagate flight delays, our model is also able to render the dynamics of AGMOD key events based on Air Traffic Controller (ATC)’s response time during cyber-physical incidences. This capability is ideal for decision makers in forming mitigation plans to enhance operational resilience.