Shocks to Transition Risk

Abstract

We propose and implement a method to identify shocks to transition risk. We identify transition risk shocks as instances where a strong differential valuation of green versus brown firms coincides with significant information on climate change. For that purpose, we combine information from long-short equity portfolios sorted on firms' carbon footprints with information from textual analysis of newspaper archives. We find that shocks increasing transition risk (negative abnormal returns of brown firms) induce a decline in aggregate and sectoral industrial production. Moreover, they significantly affect financial stability, as measured by the excess bond premium or credit conditions more generally. Finally, we document a pronounced asymmetry in the economy's response to shocks increasing or decreasing transition risk.