ComMit: Blind Community-based Early Mitigation Strategy against Viral Spread

Abstract

In the early stages of a pandemic, epidemiological knowledge of the disease is limited and no vaccination is available. This poses the problem of determining an Early Mitigation Strategy. Previous studies have tackled this problem through finding globally influential nodes that contribute the most to the spread. These methods are often not practical due to their assumptions that (1) accessing the full contact social network is possible; (2) there is an unlimited budget for the mitigation strategy; (3) healthy individuals can be isolated for indefinite amount of time, which in practice can have serious mental health and economic consequences. In this work, we study the problem of developing an early mitigation strategy from a community perspective and propose a dynamic Community-based Mitigation strategy, ComMit. The distinguishing features of ComMit are: (1) It is agnostic to the dynamics of the spread; (2) does not require prior knowledge of contact network; (3) it works within a limited budget; and (4) it enforces bursts of short-term restriction on small communities instead of long-term isolation of healthy individuals. ComMit relies on updated data from test-trace reports and its strategy evolves over time. We have tested ComMit on several real-world social networks. The results of our experiments show that, within a small budget, ComMit can reduce the peak of infection by 73% and shorten the duration of infection by 90%, even for spreads that would reach a steady state of non-zero infections otherwise (e.g., SIS contagion model).