Foreign trade and production in 2015: change of geografy

Abstract

On the basis of the results of the first eight months of 2015, it can be concluded that industries where growth in domestic output is observed simultaneously with a drop in competitive import are the agriculture and the food industry. At the same time, substitution of consumption of investment goods – from foreign ones to domestic ones – does not take place: a decline in economic activities is accompanied by a drop both in domestic production and import. Volatility of the national currency (some appreciation of the national currency in April–May followed by depreciation to the level of February–March in July-August) did not have a significant effect either on the dynamics of export or that of import: participants in foreign economic activities did not start to change their business decisions in response to short-term appreciation or weakening of the exchange rate of the national currency. It is to be noted that growth in the export of the non-primary sector either in monetary or physical terms did not take place, either. An insignificant increase in physical volumes of the export was observed only in groups of commodities with a low- and mid-level of processing (non-diversified ones).