Renewable energy sources availability under climate change scenarios — Impacts on the Portuguese energy system

Abstract

This paper presents an assessment of the impacts on the Portuguese energy system due to climate change induced water availability variations. Two different scenarios were evaluated on the 2050 time horizon: strong and weak decrease of water availability compared to a reference scenario. The impact of water availability decrease, in particular for the power sector, was assessed using a bottom-up technology based linear optimization model: TIMES (The Integrated Markal-EFOM System) calibrated and validated for Portugal. Results indicate that currently planned hydropower capacity is highly overestimated. Results also suggest that under strong decrease of water availability, marginal CO2 abatement costs in 2050 are doubled for moderate reductions targets but, as restrictions are tightened, different scenarios of water availability have little impact on the marginal CO2 abatement costs.