Ticarete konu olan ve olmayan mallarda enflasyon dinamikleri

Abstract

In this study, using 4-digit product classification and the item weights for the year 2020, consumer price index of Turkey has been computed separately for tradable and non-tradable goods. The relationships between the changes in new price indices and the changes in real effective exchange rate, US dollar, Euro, foreign exchange basket and import prices as well as output gap, productivity and consumer credit interest rate have been examined. The study finds that in January 2004-December 2020 period, the average of tradable goods inflation was below the average of non-tradable goods inflation. The tradable inflation excluding energy is higher than tradable inflation; while non-tradable inflation excluding energy is below the non-tradable inflation. It has been found that the correlation between tradable goods inflation and domestic reference indicators as well as the correlation between inflation of non-tradable goods excluding energy-related items and not only domestic but also foreign reference indicators has been strengthened during the period of the effects of coronavirus outbreak in 2020. The findings confirm that tradable goods are more sensitive to external shocks and therefore their inflation may follow a different path from non-tradable goods inflation.