Ceasefire Violations and Crisis Escalation

Happymon Jacob
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Abstract

This chapter argues that there is an empirically evident linkage between ceasefire violations (CFVs) in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) and India–Pakistan escalation dynamics. It examines this relationship using empirical evidence since the academic literature on South Asian escalation dynamics seems to, by and large, ignore the crucial links between CFVs and crisis escalation. The chapter also shows that CFVs have a cumulative snowballing effect; once they begin, several things could happen including political rhetoric, military posturing and diplomatic standoff which can lead to more CFVs and even more escalation. This chapter discusses eight cases to show how CFVs by themselves can lead to crisis escalation between India and Pakistan. In doing so, it juxtaposes quantitative data on CFVs and escalation during specific periods to highlight how escalation has resulted from CFVs and how the two have fed off of each other.
违反停火协议和危机升级
本章认为,在查谟和克什米尔(J&K)违反停火协议(CFVs)与印巴升级动态之间存在明显的经验联系。由于关于南亚升级动态的学术文献似乎总体上忽略了cfv与危机升级之间的关键联系,因此本文使用经验证据来检验这种关系。本章还表明,cfv具有累积滚雪球效应;一旦开始,一些事情可能会发生,包括政治言论、军事姿态和外交僵局,这可能导致更多的cfv,甚至更多的升级。本章讨论了八个案例,以展示cfv本身如何导致印度和巴基斯坦之间的危机升级。在此过程中,它将特定时期的cfv和升级的定量数据并置,以突出cfv是如何导致升级的,以及两者是如何相互影响的。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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