Ceasefire Violations and Crisis Escalation

Abstract

This chapter argues that there is an empirically evident linkage between ceasefire violations (CFVs) in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) and India–Pakistan escalation dynamics. It examines this relationship using empirical evidence since the academic literature on South Asian escalation dynamics seems to, by and large, ignore the crucial links between CFVs and crisis escalation. The chapter also shows that CFVs have a cumulative snowballing effect; once they begin, several things could happen including political rhetoric, military posturing and diplomatic standoff which can lead to more CFVs and even more escalation. This chapter discusses eight cases to show how CFVs by themselves can lead to crisis escalation between India and Pakistan. In doing so, it juxtaposes quantitative data on CFVs and escalation during specific periods to highlight how escalation has resulted from CFVs and how the two have fed off of each other.