A new model for technology foresight: Foresight periscope model (FPM)

Abstract

This paper suggests new technology foresight approach named Foresight Periscope Model (FPM). The article starts with various definitions of technology foresight from the literature and new definition is given by the authors. Elements of widely accepted foresight definitions are analyzed and depicted on a table according to the number of references in the definitions. Based on the literature analysis, foresight generations are grouped into four main categories. Foresight frameworks are analyzed and a generic foresight functional model with nine consecutive phases named ‘FORESIGHT’ is suggested. Functions in the FORESIGHT model are matched with the phases of prominent foresight frameworks in the literature based on their actions and artifacts within specific phases. FPM is a new technology foresight approach which has three interdependent modules; Resources, Methodology and Futures Strategies. Model makes use of periscope resemblance, that is, resources and methodology are underlying parts that enable an organization to see alternative futures and provide futures strategies to follow in order to survive and compete in the environment. Resources that can be used in a foresight exercise are explained. Foresight methods in the literature are grouped according to various criteria and the approach to choose the right methods to create proper methodology is stated. The model concludes with futures strategies which put foresight process into action by taking advantage of underlying resources and methodology. FPM does not impose a specific methods or process to attain the desired future. It provides a framework for practitioners to start with and to complete a foresight exercise by using optimum resources and proper methodology.