The Global Diffusion Patterns of Successive Technology Generations: Modeling Analog and Digital Wireless Phone Growth

Abstract

IT is a proven driver of economic growth and social development. Recent large-scale adoption of digital wireless phones among developed and developing countries has driven the expectation that high penetration will eventually pay off in economic returns and social benefits. We examine growth models to discover diffusion patterns of analog and digital wireless phones in the global context. We ask: What models might characterize diffusion growth for analog and digital wireless phones? Do developed and developing countries experience different growth patterns? Do analog and digital technologies follow different diffusion patterns? We use a matched sub-sample of twenty countries, with an equal share of developed countries and other less well-developed countries. We fitted internal, external and mixed influence diffusion models, models that allow asymmetric diffusion patterns around an inflection point for growth, and also models with a flexible inflection point for growth. The results provide a rich source of insights on wireless phone diffusion across its two key technological generations