Prediction of electric vehicle ownership based on Gompertz model

Abstract

This paper introduces the common prediction methods of vehicle ownership, and makes a compare of the Gompertz model with Logistic model. As a result, a prediction model based on the Gompertz model is proposed to predict the electric vehicle ownership of China. Then, the calculation of the model's parameters is given. Finally, we predict the electric vehicle ownership with the civilian car ownership data of China. According to the prediction results, China's electric vehicle ownership will reach the inflection point around 2035, and tend to be saturated gradually.