Spatial and Aspectual Optimization of the World Investment Policy for Grain Growing

Abstract

The article is devoted to the problems of creating at the international level the optimal investment policy in agricultural production. The problem is solved by means of the “Return-Risk” model, which is based on the basic principles of the portfolio analysis: return, risk and the return-risk ratio. The model is easy to implement and does not require special skills; for important estimates it is necessary and sufficient to use MS EXCEL Date Mining Add-in. This article analyses the historical data of 2010–2017 by productivity of grain crops in general: corn, wheat, barley and rice in different countries. The time span is 1 year. The source data are exported from knoema.com. The findings are as follows: 1) the leading countries with the most attractive potential investment results have been formed for each sample subgroup promise; 2) the benchmarking quantitative analysis on return, risk and the return-risk ratio revealed both the most investment-attractive crops depending on the investor’s attitude to the acceptable risk level, and the countries where the cultivation will be most profitable; 3) the results of the spatial, aspectual and global optimization afford synthesis of effective decision support investment systems. It is proved that the 3 % increase in risk leads to only 1 % return.