Daqing Crude Oil Price Forecast Based on the ARIMA Model

Abstract

Oil is the lifeblood of the industrial economy, oil prices are affected by many factors. Our country is the major industrial countries, changes in the price of oil affects many aspects of economic development, and therefore the price of crude oil research is extremely important. In this paper, January 2000 to December 2010 monthly average price of crude oil in Daqing to do the research. ARIMA model by building software using EVIEWS find good rule of oil price movements and the first 10 months of 2011 made a prediction.