REGIONAL PARTY SYSTEM OF NORTHERN IRELAND: EROSION OF BIPOLARITY

Abstract

The subject of the article is the dynamics of the regional party system in Northern Ireland in 2000-2010s, as well as the factors contributing to the observed changes. The research is based on the theoretical framework of J. Lane and S. Ersson and is chronologically outlined by the period of 1998-2021. Cross-temporal comparative analysis was used as a key research method. The parameters of the comparative analysis include the following variables: number of parties, effective number of parties, number of significant parties, fragmentation of the party system, ideological polarization and electoral instability. The first part of the article is devoted to the characteristics of the theoretical and methodological research design. The second part is devoted to the analysis of the dynamics of the regional party system in Northern Ireland, which is based on the study of structural and ideological elements. In the final part, the results and key findings of the study are presented, including the characteristics of the key factors in the dynamics of the regional party system. The results of the study demonstrate the dynamics of the regional party system in Northern Ireland regarding two parameters - electoral stability and ideological polarization. The degree of electoral stability of the regional party is slightly decreasing due to the redistribution of electoral preferences from unionist parties to alternative ones. The change in the parameter of ideological polarization of the regional party system is observed in two directions - the erosion of bipolarity, as well as the centripetal tendencies of ideologically extreme party actors. The key factors in the dynamics of the regional party system in Northern Ireland at the present stage are the following: instability of the regional political system based on ethno-confessional criteria; the issue of European Union membership and the future status of Northern Ireland; changes in the demographic structure of the regional community.