An agent-based model of the German electricity market with short-time uncertainty factors

Abstract

This paper proposes an agent-based model for the German wholesale electricity market that accounts for short-time uncertainty factors such as power plant outages or fluctuating renewable energy sources. The model is highly detailed using hourly values for the national demand and the feed-in from renewable energy sources as well as daily prices for carbon, coal, gas and oil. Each power plant in Germany with a capacity of more than 10 MW is considered in the model. Generation companies are represented by agents that submit bids into the market based on variable costs, start-up costs and minimal startup times of their generation capacities. In order to validate the model, a simulation is run which demonstrates that the model is well capable of replicating historical market results.