Uncertainty.

C. Yoe
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Abstract

Abstract This chapter provides information on why uncertainty is critically important for risk managers to understand. Though a legitimate focal point for most risk analysis communities of practice, it remains somewhat subtle in its role in phytosanitary risk management. There is an opportunity for significant improvement and that opportunity with a clear understanding of the nature and nuances of the language of uncertainty. This chapter has six primary purposes: (i) it distinguishes between the two levels of uncertainty; (ii) it distinguishes between the two sources of uncertainty and explains why it may be helpful to do so; (iii) it examines quantity uncertainty, the most common source of uncertainty encountered in pest risk analysis in some detail; (iv) it introduces seven causes of quantity uncertainty; (v) it explores the uncertainty encountered in a pest risk analysis or assessment in a general way; (vi) it offers a strategy for being intentional about the instrumental uncertainty encountered in a risk management activity.
不确定性。
本章提供了为什么不确定性对于风险管理者理解是至关重要的信息。虽然是大多数风险分析实践社区的合法焦点,但它在植物检疫风险管理中的作用仍然有些微妙。这是一个重大改进的机会,而这个机会与对不确定性语言的本质和细微差别的清晰理解有关。本章有六个主要目的:(i)区分两个层次的不确定性;(ii)区分不确定性的两种来源,并解释为什么这样做可能有所帮助;(iii)详细审查数量上的不确定性,这是有害生物风险分析中最常见的不确定性来源;(iv)引入了数量不确定性的七个原因;(v)一般性地探讨有害生物风险分析或评估中遇到的不确定性;(vi)它为在风险管理活动中遇到的工具不确定性提供了一种策略。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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