{"title":"Uncertainty.","authors":"C. Yoe","doi":"10.1079/9781780648798.0039","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Abstract\n This chapter provides information on why uncertainty is critically important for risk managers to understand. Though a legitimate focal point for most risk analysis communities of practice, it remains somewhat subtle in its role in phytosanitary risk management. There is an opportunity for significant improvement and that opportunity with a clear understanding of the nature and nuances of the language of uncertainty. This chapter has six primary purposes: (i) it distinguishes between the two levels of uncertainty; (ii) it distinguishes between the two sources of uncertainty and explains why it may be helpful to do so; (iii) it examines quantity uncertainty, the most common source of uncertainty encountered in pest risk analysis in some detail; (iv) it introduces seven causes of quantity uncertainty; (v) it explores the uncertainty encountered in a pest risk analysis or assessment in a general way; (vi) it offers a strategy for being intentional about the instrumental uncertainty encountered in a risk management activity.","PeriodicalId":391998,"journal":{"name":"Handbook of phytosanitary risk management: theory and practice","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Handbook of phytosanitary risk management: theory and practice","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1079/9781780648798.0039","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Abstract
This chapter provides information on why uncertainty is critically important for risk managers to understand. Though a legitimate focal point for most risk analysis communities of practice, it remains somewhat subtle in its role in phytosanitary risk management. There is an opportunity for significant improvement and that opportunity with a clear understanding of the nature and nuances of the language of uncertainty. This chapter has six primary purposes: (i) it distinguishes between the two levels of uncertainty; (ii) it distinguishes between the two sources of uncertainty and explains why it may be helpful to do so; (iii) it examines quantity uncertainty, the most common source of uncertainty encountered in pest risk analysis in some detail; (iv) it introduces seven causes of quantity uncertainty; (v) it explores the uncertainty encountered in a pest risk analysis or assessment in a general way; (vi) it offers a strategy for being intentional about the instrumental uncertainty encountered in a risk management activity.