Constructing vision with scenario planning

Abstract

Strategic vision is often included as an important component of leadership. Yet there is relatively little guidance offered in the management literature on how to acquire vision. This paper describes practices that facilitate scenario planning so that it becomes a process for creating shared vision. Most of the work on scenarios addresses the mechanics of scenario construction. Those authors adopt a planning perspective and suggest scenario planning can benefit organizations by stimulating creative thinking about the future or improving forecasts. The Scenarios-to-Strategies (S2S) approach is presented, and scenario planning is considered from a communication perspective. Facilitation practices that enhance traditional scenario-building processes are presented which support the social processes of constructing shared vision. These operate on the layer of participants' cognitive processes, to integrate the different participants' views into a unified, shared framework that heightens understanding and commitment. Example scenario planning projects from two industries, electric utilities and software research, are summarized to demonstrate lessons learned that enhance the facilitation of scenarios as a group process.