Mathematical model of the spread of COVID-19 in the rostov region for 2020–2022

Abstract

BACKGROUND: In the context of the COVID-19 epidemic, there is a need for forecasting tools that enables us to predict the possible epidemic consequences and evaluate the effectiveness of epidemic control. Mathematical modeling can serve as such a tool. AIM: The Aim is to present a mathematical model of the spread of COVID-19 in the Rostov Region for 20202022. To be more precise, the aim is to forecast how the number of people infected, recovered, hospitalized and died from the epidemic of the new coronovirus will change over this period of time. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The modeling of the epidemics was based on the extended SEIR model proposed by R. Neyer et al. for forecasting the COVID-19 epidemic and implemented as a freely available web application. RESULTS: The model under consideration made it possible to forecast the volume of hospitalization and the number of deaths in the course of COVID-19 epidemic in the Rostov region for 20202022. CONCLUSIONS: The performed simulations demonstrated the capabilities the considered SEIR model for forecasting the COVID-19 epidemic. It was found that the number of hospitalized patients for the entire period covered by the model does not exceed the capabilities of the health care system of the Rostov Region.