Reliability evaluation for distribution system based on probabilistic model checking

Abstract

In order to solve the problem of reliability evaluation for the distribution system, this paper proposes a reliability evaluation method based on the probabilistic model checking. Firstly, the running states of evaluation object are considered, including normal state and fault state. Markov model is established to describe the system's state based on the states of transmission lines and distribution system, and transition probability between states can be obtained through the historical running data. Then, the hierarchical analysis method can be applied to analyze the influence on the load point made by the status of each element. The fault set of the load point to be evaluated is represented by the status of each element. In addition, the Markov chain to be established is expressed by probabilistic model checking tool and the reliability indexes are expressed by property specification. The reliability indexes can be obtained through verifying the property specification. Finally, a typical radiant power distribution system is proposed as an instance to verify the effectiveness of the method.