ON THE RELATIONSHIP OF LONG-TERM FLUCTUATIONS IN AIR TEMPERATURE IN THE VOLGA FEDERAL DISTRICT WITH CYCLICAL SPACE IMPACTS ON THE EARTH

Abstract

Based on observation data for 1891-2018, natural long-term fluctuations in the average annual air temperature in the Volga Federal District were studied after excluding the linear trend of anthropogenic climate warming. The method of asynchronous correlation analysis with lag from 0 to 70 years revealed a statistically significant relationship between long-term temperature fluctuations and the number of sunspots. The best positive relationship was found with a 65-year delay in temperature fluctuations relative to changes in solar activity. It is assumed that, with cyclical changes in solar activity, induced quasi-zonal electric currents arise in the World Ocean that can create changes in water temperature in the ocean depths, mainly in the area of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. Cyclical temperature changes appear on the surface of the Southern Ocean with a delay of ~ 30 years. Then, through the system of currents of the Broker's global oceanic conveyor, temperature perturbations are transferred from the Southern Ocean to the North Atlantic and affect the air temperature in Europe with a delay of another 30-36 years.