Modelling the shadow economy of South Africa: Using the currency demand and MIMIC approach

M. P. Makananisa, C. T. Koloane, F. Schneider
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引用次数: 2

Abstract

Abstract. This paper estimates the size and development of the South African shadow economy (SE) using two indirect approaches namely, the Multivariate Indicator Multivariate Causes (MIMIC) model and the Currency Demand Approach (CDA). The study uses time series from 2000 to 2019 (using quarterly data) to estimate the SE of South Africa for the period 2004 to 2018. The average estimated size of the SE from the CDA and MIMIC model are 22.47% and 25.45% respectively. Overall, the MIMIC and CDA models are both showing a slight decreasing trend for the same period. The study recommends further analysis to be conducted on economic segments in order to explore the SE activity distribution between different economic sectors; resulting in an easier way to identify, locate and monitor unrecorded businesses and also increase revenue collections and minimise non-compliance for different sectors. Keywords. Shadow Economy of South Africa, GDP, CDA, MIMIC. JEL. C32, H26, I2, O17, P48.
南非影子经济建模:使用货币需求和MIMIC方法
摘要本文使用两种间接方法,即多元指标多元原因(MIMIC)模型和货币需求方法(CDA)来估计南非影子经济(SE)的规模和发展。该研究使用2000年至2019年的时间序列(使用季度数据)来估计2004年至2018年期间南非的东南偏南。CDA和MIMIC模型对SE的平均估计大小分别为22.47%和25.45%。总体而言,同期MIMIC和CDA模式均呈现轻微下降趋势。研究建议进一步分析经济界别,以探讨不同经济界别之间的经济活动分布;从而更容易地识别、定位和监控未记录的业务,并增加收入,最大限度地减少不同行业的违规行为。关键词。南非影子经济,GDP, CDA, MIMIC。冻胶。C32, h26, i2, o17, p48。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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