Drivers of Change

Clare Lade, P. Strickland, Elspeth Frew, P. Willard, Sandra Cherro Osorio, Swati Nagpal, P. Vitartas
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Abstract

At first glance, it would appear that tourism is ubiquitous; it is a global activity that is experienced in all countries, with every country having an equal stake. However, this is misleading as it has been demonstrated that international tourism is ‘dominated by relatively few countries’, with tourism being described as an activity ‘open to an elite only‘. As such, tourism has traditionally been engaged in by those who are from prosperous countries, who have higher incomes and stable and secure societies (Todd, 2001: 12). International tourism is dominated by the ‘wealthier, industrialised world’ (Sharpley, 2018: 50), with the major tourism flows occurring between the more developed countries or from developed countries to developing countries. In recent years some new destinations such as Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa have emerged (Weaver and Lawton, 2014), challenging the dominance of the traditional generating and receiving countries. However, the majority of travel is still undertaken by tourists from traditional tourism generating regions of Europe, North America and parts of South East Asia (Sharpley, 2018: 50). Despite this concentration of tourist origins, many countries around the world are interested in receiving tourists for the economic benefits including local employment and foreign currency. Todd (2001: 14) suggests that if every country in the world had ‘peace with its neighbours and a rational approach to development’, they could see tourism play its part in developing their economies. From a demand side perspective, ‘rising real incomes, expanding discretionary spending, increasing leisure time, faster and cheaper transport and the spread of global awareness through the printed and broadcast media and... through the internet’ fuel tourism growth (Todd, 2001: 15). But the question remains, what will happen to tourism in the future?
变革的驱动因素
乍一看,旅游业似乎无处不在;这是一项所有国家都经历过的全球性活动,每个国家都有平等的利益。然而,这是一种误导,因为事实证明,国际旅游业“由相对较少的国家主导”,旅游业被描述为“只对精英开放”的活动。因此,旅游业传统上是由那些来自富裕国家的人从事的,他们有较高的收入和稳定和安全的社会(托德,2001:12)。国际旅游由“富裕的工业化国家”主导(Sharpley, 2018: 50),主要的旅游流量发生在较发达国家之间或从发达国家到发展中国家。近年来,一些新的目的地,如巴西,俄罗斯,印度,中国和南非已经出现(韦弗和劳顿,2014),挑战传统的生产和接收国的主导地位。然而,大多数游客仍然来自欧洲、北美和东南亚部分地区的传统旅游产生地区(Sharpley, 2018: 50)。尽管游客来源如此集中,但世界上许多国家对接待游客感兴趣的是经济利益,包括当地就业和外汇。Todd(2001: 14)认为,如果世界上每个国家都“与邻国和平相处,并采取理性的发展方式”,他们就能看到旅游业在发展经济中发挥作用。从需求方面来看,“实际收入的增加、可自由支配支出的扩大、休闲时间的增加、交通的快速和廉价,以及全球意识通过印刷和广播媒体的传播……通过互联网推动旅游业增长(Todd, 2001: 15)。但问题仍然存在,未来旅游业会发生什么?
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