A Novel Prediction Model for Sales Forecasting Based on Grey System

Abstract

Sales forecasting is an important aspect for sales management. It will be great if we can make sales forecasting as an intelligent service in an information system. Based on the grey system theory, we analyzed the disadvantages of grey prediction model GM(1; 1) in this article. Considering the actual characteristics of the prediction series, a model of adaptive prediction with small samples is established with the background value and offset value correction. We use the data of a Tmall shop as an illustrating example for sales forecasting. The results indicate that this model can achieve good prediction accuracy, which proves the validity of the model.