Impact de Solvabilit e II sur l' economie r eelle: une approche micro- economique (Solvency II impact on the Real Economy: A Microeconomic Approach)

Abstract

The delay in the implementation of Solvency II from January 2013 to 2015, or 2016, reveals many unanswered questions that regulators have concerning the microeconomic and macroeconomic consequences of the new regulatory framework. At the microeconomic level, adding the market risk in the calculation of regulatory capital should naturally lead the insurers to a reallocation of their assets portfolio. The relocation would involve a partial sale of risky securities (i.e. stocks, bonds high duration, securitization) and their replacement with less risky securities. One of the concerns of public authorities is that this tendency related to insurers’ portfolio reallocation may lead to a fall in equity prices and an increase of long term interest rates, thereby having obviously a very unfavorable impact on economic growth in Europe.