Sistem Informasi Peramalan Persediaan Roti Menggunakan Metode Single Exponential Smoothing Pada Pabrik Teguh Karya Bakery

Abstract

produksi masih menggunakan metode perhitungan berdasarkan hasil produksi yang terkadang jumlahnya sangat berlebih dan kurang. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengoptimalkan jumlah produksi roti maka dibutuhkan sistem informasi peramalan persediaan roti menggunakan metode Single Exponential Smoothing. Peramalan persediaan produksi roti dilakukan dengan pengujian tingkat keakuratan hasil peramalan. Tingkat keakuratan dihasilkan dari nilai MAPE disetiap perhitungan, semakin kecil nilai MAPE maka tingkat Abstract When determining the amount of production or inventory of each type of bread, production managers still use the calculation method based on their own estimates, causing production results which are sometimes excessive and Less. This research aims to optimize the amount of bread production, which takes information system forecasting bread supplies using the Single Exponential Smoothing method. Forecasting of bread production supply by testing the accuracy of the forecasting results. The accuracy level is generated from the MAPE value in each calculation, the smaller the MAPE value, the more precise the accuracy level. Testing was conducted with forecasting results using alphas that differ from 0.1 – 0.9. After testing obtained the best mape results for each type of bread, for the best alpha burger bread is alpha 0.4 with a forecast value of 670 pieces of bread, for the best alpha bread is 0.2 with a forecasting number of 234 pieces of bread, for the best alpha chocolate pia bread is 0.5 with a forecasting number of 1783 pieces of bread, for the best alpha green bean pia bread 0.6 with a forecasting number of 1480 pieces of bread for the best alpha chocolate sandwich 0.6 with a forecasting number of 1788 pieces of bread for the best alpha srikaya sandwich is 0.9 with a forecast number of 1764 pieces of bread and for the average accuracy of all types of bread is 94%.