Dealing with probabilistic problems in health care: What about the role of knowledge in daily life?

Abstract

This study investigates the role of knowledge about probability on probabilistic reasoning applied in a health scenario. A total of 594 undergraduates attempted to solve a probabilistic problem regarding healthiness; they were distinguished on the basis of their previous curricula and assessed in relation to a set of individual dimensions (confidence in the correctness of their response, statistical anxiety, numerical and visuo-spatial abilities) and a contextual feature (time pressure). No differences in the occurrence of correct/incorrect answers were discovered in participants with/without knowledge about probability. The participants without knowledge showed a confidence in the correctness of their response higher than that of their colleagues with previous knowledge. Network analysis was applied to investigate all dimensions under inquiry. Findings provide evidence regarding the positive connections between knowledge and correctness and between confidence and correctness. Regarding the practical and applicative issues, outcomes support the idea that it could be of great utility to devise programs to promote well-being and public health by the development of ad hoc educational strategies devoted to support confidence in one's ability to solve problems and to enhance uncertainty tolerance.